The seventy-third day of the war. How will NATO react to the use of nuclear weapons?

The dramatic battle for the Donbass is underway, and although there are no major changes on the front lines, the fighting and mutual artillery fire, causing losses on both sides, does not stop. In the meantime, the question of what Putin can do when he is completely cornered remains troubling.

Of course, all eyes are on Izium, Jampił, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Popasna. At the turn of these cities, listed from west to east and then south, the fate of the campaign takes place in the Donbass. It is true that the fights still take place in one place, but their intensity is very intense. The Russians were gradually advancing in the Lyman region east of Izyum, but there also the Ukrainians with miraculous efforts managed to carry out a counterattack that stopped the Russian forces. At the moment, there is a fierce fight for the town of Lyman between the buildings of the city, which the Russian army does not like very much and with which they cannot cope.

Only in the east, in the depths of the Slavic arc, the Russians again stormed the village of Wojewodivka, located between the cities of Rubine and Sewierodonets. In general, it will not be of great importance, since the Donets River flows west of Rubyn and Sierodonetsk, which is a similar obstacle to the English Channel for Russian troops. But the problem is that you also need to transport supplies to the Ukrainian troops across the river, and for this you need a full bridge. While there is at least one near Sewierodoniecko, it is not certain whether the one near Rubiżno is still alive. During war as with war – today there is a bridge and tomorrow there is not. And it is difficult to rebuild something, the pontoon bridge is also not easy to assemble. If there was no crossing under Rubiżno, it is likely that ammunition and other necessary materials were transported to this city via the Sewierodonets, via the local bridge. If malicious orcs squeeze between the two cities, they cut Robezni from supplies. That’s just, in my opinion, they won’t last long.

Unfortunately, there are also the first signs of severe exhaustion of the Ukrainian troops, who have been fighting here constantly since Easter. Continuous exposure to lethal mortal fire to humans. I remember my impressions of the former Yugoslavia, when the bearing of subsequent shells cost me a lot mentally. A few years later, a light-headed TV lady asked me if the people of Belgrade had ever been used to being bombed by NATO planes. Angry, I fired rudely because they not only got used to them, but also loved them, leaving you dumbfounded, covered in a slightly forced smile. Believe me, you can be the bravest man, and the roar of the explosions and the blow of a chain of machine guns plows your mind as much as a field with a four-groove plow. You can’t take it forever, everyone eventually falls apart.

Apparently, this was the experience of the Ukrainian 79th Airborne Brigade near Lyman, where his battalion was to withdraw without orders. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is scheduled to investigate the same case, although the incident, of course, was blown up by pro-Kremlin propaganda. Videos appeared on the Web in which he told the soldiers of the brigade that only reservists served in the brigade, the commander left them there and disappeared somewhere for a few days, etc. Perhaps these films are Russian propaganda. Ukraine has an interesting system to compensate for losses. New recruits are first integrated into the territorial defense forces. Here they undergo basic military training and then participate in less demanding operational missions. After that, they are directed to the battlefields in secondary directions, and after a few weeks they are transferred as an extension of the regular army units, replacing them in the territorial defense forces with “juniors”.

Even if there were incidents of fatigue and nervous breakdowns in the 79th Airborne Brigade, we have no right to judge them. A person who had not been exposed to heavy fire before could not even come close to her form. I am very impressed with the Ukrainian forces who are enduring all this with such force of spirit. Signs of a nervous breakdown can be seen on the Russian side, when cellular calls to the house are often wiretapped, and these pass through Ukrainian mobile operators who read it eagerly, and Russian soldiers complain that you can only return home when “the rubble is 200” Or – if you’re lucky – like “Rubble 300”, that is, dead or wounded. In short, happy is the one whose hand was cut off or his stomach was torn …

Another ship?

There are more and more reports that another Russian warship, a fairly modern frigate “Admiral Makarov”, was burning in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bSnake Island. It is one of three Type 11356R Burewiestnik frigates, similar in size to our ORP Kazimierz Pułaski type, but because it was only built six years ago, it is more modern than our units. Its armament includes, among other things, Kalibr missiles in the variants of anti-ship and land targets, as well as Buk anti-aircraft missiles in the marine version. The same, despite the downing of a Malaysian Boeing 777 over Ukraine by a land-based missile in 2014, was then done by Russian forces supporting separatists in Donetsk. Apparently, the frigate “Admiral Makarov” was hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles. I think that in a few days we will know how the whole incident will end, because the American drone RQ-4 Global Hawk, the British long-range reconnaissance aircraft RC-135W Rivet Joint and the American patrol aircraft P-8A Poseidon fly over this region of the Black Sea. The frigate is supposed to be swimming right now, but we’re keeping our fingers crossed for it. In the evening I’ll toast her – down!

The frigate, although damaged, reached Sevastopol on its own, although the extent of the damage inflicted on it is unknown. The Ukrainian army boasted of the sinking of the landing ship 11770 Sjerna. It is a small ship the size of the White Fleet, but it is one of two in the Black Sea. And although the cutter is so small that it will be able to enter the Elbląg through the new Vistula Spit trench, it is another success at sea for a country that has almost no fleet.

By the way, it is worth explaining, because some concepts on TV are systematically confused – a ship is a military ship, and a ship is a civilian ship. Let us not be worse than the Russians, who do not confuse “korabl” with “sjudo”, and have the same terminology. The worst situation is when translating from English, where both are “ship”. And one more thing – the ship class “destroyer”, “cruiser”, “frigate”, that is, “bus”, “truck”, “delivery truck” … “class”, just like the car brand, MAN, Mercedes. I know the opposite is true in English i.e. ‘class’ is a type and ‘type’ is a class. But knowing languages ​​is really worth it. Thanks to this, you can get along with a person who does not know Polish.

As well as about nuclear weapons

Yesterday, Deputy Director of the Information Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexei Zaitsev announced that nuclear weapons will not be used in a special operation in Ukraine. More precisely, he said: “The scenarios of our possible use of nuclear weapons are clearly defined in the Russian doctrinal documents. They do not apply to the implementation of the tasks set during the special military operation in Ukraine.

Most of all, it struck me that such things should be said at all. However, the Russian mentality is like a story from a series of black humor, when a serial killer takes a girl into a dark forest, and she begins to complain that the forest is too dark, too frightening, too frightening … After all, through this terrible and terrifying forest I will be back alone! “.

Therefore, it is worth recalling what specifically stipulates the Russian Defense Doctrine of December 30, 2014 on the use of nuclear weapons. A says the following: “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction against itself and/or its allies, and in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is at stake.”

And be smart here. And if, for example, an ammunition depot in Russia was blown up, and a small nuclear explosion occurred somewhere, then the doctrinal conditions will be fulfilled more than necessary. In Russia, an ammunition depot explodes on average once every two years under peaceful conditions, but recently it has been an epidemic, ammunition and fuel depots have been blown up, chemical factories and secret institutes are burning … Hell know what is still in this wave will sleep or it will explode.

Secondly, if Ukraine, with the help of the West, finally defeats the Russian forces in its own country and enters Luganda, Donetsk (Lugansk and Donetsk RL), the latter according to Russia – and according to Russia and only Mrs. Luban – it is its territory, and the Kremlin will consider it an aggression against Russia. If the Russians finally get upset about not having a decent loafer and whiskey, they’ll take to the streets collectively And they begin to protest, and Putin will realize that Russia’s well-being is also at risk. Indeed, it may be so, because in the extreme situations in which Russia might collapse, it is not a completely unified nation-state entity, which is often forgotten. After all, Russia is a federation of different entities: republics, countries, territories, autonomous regions, autonomous regions, there are even three separate cities (including Sevastopol, occupied since 2014). As you can see, even here they have a mess.

The only question is how desperate Putin would be in such a precarious situation for Russia. Perhaps it is as in the now forgotten comedy “Four Weddings and a Funeral”, when an older man asks a crying young girl what happened. “I was desperate to have sex at this wedding…” she replies, to which the man straightens his hair and timidly suggests: “Well, can I help somehow?” The girl said: “Don’t be silly! I’m not desperate!” You see, every desperation has its limits, but it doesn’t have to have anything to do with Putin’s backup.

NATO response

If Putin’s terrified ministers and generals did not stop this madness, but used tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, I think NATO’s response must be very decisive. Of course, there would be no way to hit Russia with your nuclear strikes, because that would be Armageddon. But then, the entry of NATO forces into Ukraine without crossing the borders of Russia (of course the one that was before 2014) would be an appropriate response. The liberation of Ukraine in the hands of Western countries, the rebuilding of the Ukrainian state, its admission into NATO with the permanent military presence of NATO countries in that country (if Ukraine had expressed this desire, I would be surprised if it did not. ), this would be what he can and should do NATO.

Then Russia will have a snack. Because another nuclear attack would be out of the question – now it would be an attack on NATO forces. Nor would these forces use any nuclear weapons themselves, bringing the conflict back to conventional warfare, in line with Hermann Kahn’s ladder theory of escalation, which supports the “flexible response” doctrine, which remains NATO’s official defense doctrine. Russia will be at an impasse. Because now, with conventional procedures again, she would take the last blows, lose everything she fought for, and Putin would become opaline. It will likely end up with some political earthquake in Russia. And if in such a situation the country decided to use nuclear weapons against NATO, then its generals would be well aware that they are now signing the verdict on their homeland. I think that even if they surrendered now, if they were to strike NATO, they would say “no” to Putin.

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